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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Dec 13 2018 6:09 am

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130556
SPC AC 130555

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast vicinity today and tonight. Large hail should be the main
threat in parts of east Texas late this afternoon and evening.

A lead southern-stream shortwave trough will advance quickly
eastward over the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today and
tonight. Meanwhile, a more amplified upper trough will deepen and
eventually close off over central TX this afternoon and evening. A
surface low will develop slowly eastward across central/east TX in
tandem with the upper low, while a weaker secondary low develops
across the central Gulf Coast tonight into early Friday morning.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing this morning over
parts of southeast TX as continued low-level warm air advection and
large-scale lift occurs ahead of the previously mentioned
southern-stream shortwave trough. Although low-level moisture will
likely remain limited with dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s,
modest diurnal heating should support weak instability from
southeast TX into parts of southern LA through this morning. With
30-40 kt of effective bulk shear forecast to be present over this
region, isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds could occur. A tornado
also cannot be ruled out, mainly near the coast where low-level
moisture will be somewhat greater.

As the primary upper trough/low moves across the southern Plains
this afternoon, a strong mid-level jet of 50-80+ kt will overspread
much of east TX. There still remains uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization that will develop across this region in
the wake of morning convection. Still, there will probably be enough
of a gap through much of the afternoon to allow for some surface
heating, and mid-level lapse rates will be steepening ahead of the
upper low as mid/upper-level temperatures decrease. Forecast
soundings from the NAM/RAP suggest MLCAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg will
develop in a narrow corridor arcing around the eastern periphery of
the surface cyclone by 20-21Z. The strong forcing associated with
the mid-level jet and a cold front attendant to the surface low will
likely initiate isolated to widely scattered convection by late
afternoon in parts of east TX. Although not much veering of the
south-southwesterly winds with height is forecast, they will
strengthen considerably through the troposphere. Long, nearly
straight hodographs at mid levels suggest isolated large hail with
supercells will probably be the main threat, although strong/gusty
winds could also occur. A tornado or two may also be possible,
primarily to the northeast of the surface low where low-level winds
should be locally backed more southeasterly.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The inland advance of a coastal warm front will likely be tempered
until late tonight across coastal southeastern LA, MS, AL, and the
western FL Panhandle. Low-level warm/moist air advection will
gradually increase overnight as the closed upper low over east TX
slowly approaches from the west and a secondary surface low forms
and subsequently develops eastward across this region. With low to
mid 60s dewpoints forecast to move only slightly inland ahead of the
surface low, a marginal wind/tornado threat should generally remain
confined along/near the coast where weak surface-based instability
and strong low-level shear will be present.

..Gleason/Cook.. 12/13/2018


Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly: