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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Oct 22 2018 2:08 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SPC AC 221249

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z


Isolated large hail will be possible, mainly later this afternoon
across parts of eastern and northern Arizona.

A relatively dry/stable continental air mass will dominate much of
the CONUS, while a slow-moving midlevel trough persists over the
Southwest.  One embedded shortwave trough is now rotating
northeastward over the lower CO River Valley, and should reach UT
later this afternoon into tonight.

...Parts of eastern and northern AZ mainly 20z to 00z...
Ongoing elevated convection in clusters from southeastern
NV/southwestern UT to southeastern AZ is related to ascent with the
shortwave trough over the lower CO River Valley.  There have been
only minor changes in low-midlevel moisture and midlevel lapse rates
across AZ (at TUS and FGZ) compared to yesterday morning, though
slight midlevel warming in the wake of this morning's wave will tend
to reduce midlevel lapse rates a little from the Rim southward
compared to Sunday.  The storm environment will be characterized by
sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg with afternoon surface
heating) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) for
organized storms and isolated supercells/storm splits.  Despite some
weakening of ascent by this afternoon south of the Rim, at least
isolated storm coverage is still expected where buoyancy will be
larger.  The strongest storms could produce isolated large hail and
gusty outflow winds.

..Thompson/Peters.. 10/22/2018



Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly: